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Kyle Pitts

Kyle Pitts Receptions
Player Prop Week 9

Atlanta Falcons vs Los Angeles Chargers

Kyle Pitts Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-134/+102).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ -121 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ -134.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.

THE BLITZ projects Kyle Pitts to total 6.9 targets in this week's contest, on average, placing him in the 96th percentile among TEs.

Kyle Pitts has been much more involved in his team's passing offense this season (25.2% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (20.0%).

Kyle Pitts has been among the best pass-game TEs this year, averaging a stellar 3.0 receptions per game while ranking in the 77th percentile.

The Atlanta Falcons have faced a stacked the box on 17.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-most in football. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

THE BLITZ projects the Atlanta Falcons as the 3rd-least pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 51.1% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

THE BLITZ projects the Atlanta Falcons offense to be the 3rd-worst paced team in football (adjusted for context) at the present time, averaging 30.10 seconds per play.

Kyle Pitts's sure-handedness have diminished this season, with his Completion% shrinking from 62.0% to 58.0%.

The Los Angeles Chargers pass defense has surrendered the 10th-lowest Completion% in the NFL (67.7%) vs. TEs this year (67.7%).

The Los Angeles Chargers linebackers rank as the 10th-best LB corps in the league this year in pass coverage.

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