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Kyle Pitts

Kyle Pitts Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 16

Atlanta Falcons vs New York Giants

Kyle Pitts Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 24.5 (-121/-108).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 26.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 24.5 @ -108.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Atlanta Falcons offense has played at the 8th-quickest pace in football (context-neutralized) this year, averaging 27.94 seconds per play.

This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.

The predictive model expects Kyle Pitts to total 4.2 targets in this week's game, on average, putting him in the 78th percentile among tight ends.

Kyle Pitts's ability to pick up extra yardage has gotten a boost this year, averaging 5.20 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to a mere 2.53 rate last year.

This year, the porous Giants pass defense has been gouged for a monstrous 92.9% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing tight ends: the highest rate in the league.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

An extreme rushing game script is implied by the Falcons being a huge 9.5-point favorite in this week's contest.

The projections expect the Falcons as the 4th-least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 49.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.

Opposing offenses teams have been hesitant to rely on the passing game too much against the New York Giants, averaging the fewest attempts in the NFL (a lowly 29.1 per game) this year.

Kyle Pitts has put up significantly fewer air yards this season (38.0 per game) than he did last season (62.0 per game).

Kyle Pitts's 33.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that examines high-value offensive volume) has been notably lower this year than it was last year at 44.8.

More Kyle Pitts Player Props

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