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Kyle Pitts

Kyle Pitts Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 14

Minnesota Vikings vs Atlanta Falcons

Kyle Pitts Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 33.5 (-114/-114).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 34.5 @ -118 before it was bet down to 33.5 @ -114.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

A passing game script is implied by the Falcons being a -6-point underdog in this week's contest.

The model projects the Atlanta Falcons to be the 8th-most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 62.0% pass rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.

Given the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is forecasted by our trusted projection set to have 130.0 offensive plays called: the 5th-highest number out of all the games this week.

The passing games of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (i.e. no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may go down.

The Minnesota Vikings defense has been a glaring pass funnel this year, tempting opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 3rd-most passes in the NFL (39.1 per game) this year.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Kyle Pitts has posted far fewer air yards this season (38.0 per game) than he did last season (62.0 per game).

Kyle Pitts's 31.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that examines high-value offensive volume) has been quite a bit worse this year than it was last year at 44.8.

The Atlanta O-line profiles as the 9th-worst in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative impact on all passing offense metrics across the board.

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