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Kyle Pitts

Kyle Pitts Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 13

Atlanta Falcons vs Los Angeles Chargers

Kyle Pitts Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 39.5 (-130/+100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 38.5 @ -118 before it was bet up to 39.5 @ -130.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The predictive model expects the Atlanta Falcons as the 7th-most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 59.8% pass rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.

The leading projections forecast the Atlanta Falcons offense to be the 6th-fastest paced team in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the present time, averaging 27.18 seconds per snap.

This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.

The leading projections forecast Kyle Pitts to accumulate 5.3 targets this week, on average, placing him in the 85th percentile among TEs.

Kyle Pitts checks in as one of the leading TE receiving threats this year, averaging an impressive 36.0 adjusted yards per game while grading out in the 78th percentile.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

After totaling 62.0 air yards per game last year, Kyle Pitts has been a disappointment this year, now sitting at 40.0 per game.

Kyle Pitts's 33.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that examines high-value offensive volume) has been significantly worse this season than it was last season at 44.8.

When talking about protecting the passer (and the significance it has on all passing offense stats), the offensive line of the Falcons grades out as the 6th-worst in the NFL this year.

This year, the daunting Los Angeles Chargers defense has surrendered a puny 40.0 adjusted receiving yards per game vs. opposing TEs: the 4th-fewest in football.

This year, the strong Los Angeles Chargers pass defense has given up the 2nd-least yards-after-the-catch in the league to opposing tight ends: a measly 3.3 YAC.

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