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Kyle Pitts

Kyle Pitts Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 11

Denver Broncos vs Atlanta Falcons

Kyle Pitts Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 42.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 36.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 42.5 @ -110.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The model projects this game to have the 3rd-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 133.0 plays, based on the traits of each team and game dynamics.

The passing games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the still weather conditions (2-mph wind) being predicted in this game, while ground volume may go down.

Opposing offenses have averaged 35.4 pass attempts per game vs. the Broncos defense this year: 8th-most in the NFL.

In this week's game, Kyle Pitts is expected by the model to rank in the 88th percentile when it comes to tight ends with 5.4 targets.

Kyle Pitts rates as one of the best tight ends in the pass game this year, averaging an impressive 39.0 adjusted yards per game while grading out in the 82nd percentile.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The leading projections forecast the Atlanta Falcons to be the 9th-least pass-centric offense in football (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 58.6% pass rate.

Kyle Pitts has compiled significantly fewer air yards this year (41.0 per game) than he did last year (62.0 per game).

Kyle Pitts's 34.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that assesses high-value offensive usage) has been significantly worse this season than it was last season at 44.8.

The Atlanta Falcons offensive line ranks as the 9th-worst in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a negative impact on all pass game stats across the board.

The Denver Broncos defense has allowed the 9th-fewest adjusted receiving yards per game in the NFL (just 42.0) to TEs this year.

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