Kyle Pitts Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Kyle Pitts

NFL · Player Props

Kyle Pitts

TE · Atlanta Falcons

Receiving Yards

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Atlanta Falcons · Week 7, 2023

Updated Oct 22, 2023 11:16 PM EST

Analysis

Kyle Pitts Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 29.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 32.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 29.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

A throwing game script is indicated by the Falcons being a -3-point underdog in this week's contest.
The projections expect the Atlanta Falcons to be the 10th-fastest paced defense in the league (context-neutralized) at the moment, with opposing offenses averaging 27.70 seconds per snap.
The Buccaneers defense has been a prominent pass funnel this year, leading opposing teams to attempt the 3rd-most passes in the NFL (40.6 per game) this year.
The model projects Kyle Pitts to accrue 5.8 targets in this week's contest, on balance, ranking him in the 89th percentile among TEs.
When it comes to air yards, Kyle Pitts grades out in the towering 100th percentile among TEs this year, accruing a colossal 71.0 per game.

Favors Under

The model projects the Falcons as the 6th-least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 54.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
With a RATE1-RATE2 point decrease in WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that weighs high-value offensive usage) from last season to this one, Kyle Pitts has been relied on much less in his team's pass game.
Kyle Pitts's skills in generating extra yardage have tailed off this year, totaling just 2.05 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) vs a 6.61 rate last year.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers pass defense has allowed the 3rd-lowest Adjusted Completion% in football (62.7%) versus TEs this year (62.7%).
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers pass defense has displayed good efficiency versus tight ends this year, conceding 4.56 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 3rd-fewest in the NFL.

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