My Account Log Out

reorder

Kyle Pitts

Kyle Pitts Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 18

New Orleans Saints vs Atlanta Falcons

Kyle Pitts Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 28.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 35.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 28.5 @ -110.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Falcons are a 3-point underdog in this game, likely leading to a passing game script.

Given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Atlanta Falcons are expected by the projection model to call 70.0 offensive plays in this game: the highest number among all teams this week.

This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.

In this week's game, Kyle Pitts is forecasted by the projections to place in the 91st percentile among TEs with 6.1 targets.

When it comes to pass protection (and the strong effect it has on all pass attack metrics), the O-line of the Atlanta Falcons ranks as the 6th-best in the NFL this year.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Falcons to pass on 54.6% of their opportunities: the 9th-lowest frequency among all teams this week.

Kyle Pitts has accumulated significantly fewer air yards this season (62.0 per game) than he did last season (77.0 per game).

Kyle Pitts's 44.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that assesses high-value offensive volume) has been notably lower this year than it was last year at 63.1.

Kyle Pitts's talent in grinding out extra yardage have worsened this season, totaling just 2.57 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) vs a 6.61 rate last season.

This year, the imposing New Orleans Saints defense has yielded a meager 67.6% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing TEs: the smallest rate in the league.

More Kyle Pitts Player Props

© 2022 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™