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Kyle Pitts

Kyle Pitts Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 17

Chicago Bears vs Atlanta Falcons

Kyle Pitts Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 34.5 (-130/+100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 34.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 34.5 @ -130.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The model projects the Falcons offense to be the 6th-fastest paced team in the league (in a neutral context) right now, averaging 26.58 seconds per snap.

Opposing teams have averaged 39.7 pass attempts per game versus the Chicago Bears defense this year: 3rd-most in the NFL.

The projections expect Kyle Pitts to accumulate 5.4 targets in this game, on balance, placing him in the 84th percentile when it comes to tight ends.

In regards to protecting the passer (and the strong impact it has on all air attack statistics), the O-line of the Falcons profiles as the 7th-best in the league this year.

Kyle Pitts grades out as one of the top pass-game tight ends this year, averaging a fantastic 39.0 adjusted yards per game while checking in at the 83rd percentile.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The model projects the Falcons as the 3rd-least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 49.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.

Kyle Pitts has accumulated significantly fewer air yards this year (61.0 per game) than he did last year (77.0 per game).

Kyle Pitts's 45.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that quantifies high-value offensive volume) has been notably lower this year than it was last year at 63.1.

Kyle Pitts's talent in grinding out extra yardage have declined this year, compiling just 2.60 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to a 6.61 mark last year.

The Chicago Bears pass defense has shown good efficiency versus tight ends this year, allowing 6.39 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 2nd-fewest in the NFL.

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