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Kyle Pitts

Kyle Pitts Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 16

Atlanta Falcons vs Indianapolis Colts

Kyle Pitts Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 38.5 (-110/-110).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Our trusted projections expect this game to see the most plays run on the slate this week at 138.7 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The passing attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (as in no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may suffer.

The model projects Kyle Pitts to garner 6.4 targets in this week's contest, on balance, putting him in the 92nd percentile among TEs.

The Atlanta offensive line grades out as the 7th-best in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a positive impact on all air attack statistics across the board.

With a fantastic 39.0 adjusted receiving yards per game (84th percentile) this year, Kyle Pitts ranks as one of the best pass-game tight ends in the NFL.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Falcons to pass on 51.5% of their chances: the 4th-lowest clip on the slate this week.

Opposing QBs have averaged 32.7 pass attempts per game versus the Colts defense this year: 6th-fewest in football.

After accumulating 77.0 air yards per game last year, Kyle Pitts has fallen off this year, now sitting at 62.0 per game.

Kyle Pitts's 46.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that calculates high-value offensive volume) has been quite a bit lower this season than it was last season at 63.1.

Kyle Pitts's 2.70 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this season represents a remarkable regression in his effectiveness in space over last season's 6.6% mark.

More Kyle Pitts Player Props

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