Kyle Pitts Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Kyle Pitts

NFL · Player Props

Kyle Pitts

TE · Atlanta Falcons

Receiving Yards

Carolina Panthers vs Atlanta Falcons · Week 15, 2023

Updated Dec 17, 2023 8:26 PM UTC

Analysis

Kyle Pitts Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 29.5 (-148/+112).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 38.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 29.5 @ +112.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The predictive model expects the Atlanta Falcons to call the most total plays on the slate this week with 67.4 plays, given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.
The 4th-largest volume of plays in the league have been called by the Falcons this year (a colossal 61.2 per game on average).
The predictive model expects Kyle Pitts to total 5.5 targets this week, on balance, placing him in the 86th percentile when it comes to TEs.
The Atlanta O-line profiles as the 10th-best in the league this year in pass protection, which has a positive influence on all pass game stats across the board.
Kyle Pitts profiles as one of the top pass-game tight ends this year, averaging a terrific 39.0 adjusted yards per game while ranking in the 82nd percentile.

Favors Under

Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Falcons to pass on 46.8% of their plays: the lowest rate on the slate this week.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 30.5 pass attempts per game versus the Carolina Panthers defense this year: 2nd-fewest in the NFL.
After averaging 77.0 air yards per game last year, Kyle Pitts has seen a big downtick this year, now averaging 63.0 per game.
Kyle Pitts's 45.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that examines high-value offensive usage) has been significantly worse this year than it was last year at 63.1.
Kyle Pitts's 2.61 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this season indicates a meaningful drop-off in his effectiveness in the open field over last season's 6.6% figure.

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