Kyle Pitts Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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Kyle Pitts

NFL · Player Props

Kyle Pitts

TE · Atlanta Falcons

Receiving Yards

Atlanta Falcons vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 14, 2023

Updated Dec 11, 2023 2:51 AM UTC

Analysis

Kyle Pitts Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 36.5 (-105/-125).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 34.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 36.5 @ -105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The projections expect the Atlanta Falcons to run the 4th-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 67.2 plays, accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics.
The Falcons have run the 5th-most plays in football this year, totaling a monstrous 61.2 plays per game.
The pass games of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (meaning no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may suffer.
The Buccaneers defense has been a bit of pass funnel this year, causing opposing QBs to attempt the 6th-most passes in the NFL (38.6 per game) this year.
In this game, Kyle Pitts is forecasted by the predictive model to finish in the 94th percentile among tight ends with 6.6 targets.

Favors Under

The projections expect the Falcons to be the 7th-least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 53.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
After averaging 77.0 air yards per game last season, Kyle Pitts has undergone a big decline this season, now sitting at 61.0 per game.
Kyle Pitts's 46.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that measures high-value offensive volume) has been quite a bit worse this year than it was last year at 63.1.
Kyle Pitts's ability to grind out extra yardage has declined this season, averaging a measly 2.51 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) vs a 6.61 figure last season.
The Buccaneers pass defense has allowed the 7th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (69.8%) to TEs this year (69.8%).

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