Kyle Pitts Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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NFL · Player Props

Kyle Pitts

TE · Atlanta Falcons

Receiving Yards

New York Jets vs Atlanta Falcons · Week 13, 2023

Updated Dec 3, 2023 8:21 PM UTC

Analysis

Kyle Pitts Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 30.5 (-110/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Falcons are anticipated by our trusted projection set to run 66.6 plays on offense in this game: the 5th-most among all teams this week.
The Falcons have called the 6th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a monstrous 61.5 plays per game.
The predictive model expects Kyle Pitts to accrue 5.3 targets this week, on balance, placing him in the 91st percentile among TEs.
The Falcons offensive line grades out as the 9th-best in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive influence on all passing attack stats across the board.
Kyle Pitts checks in as one of the leading pass-catching tight ends this year, averaging a terrific 36.0 adjusted yards per game while checking in at the 76th percentile.

Favors Under

The leading projections forecast the Falcons to be the least pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 49.8% pass rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
Opposing offenses have averaged 33.0 pass attempts per game against the New York Jets defense this year: 5th-fewest in football.
After averaging 77.0 air yards per game last year, Kyle Pitts has gotten worse this year, currently sitting at 58.0 per game.
With a RATE1-RATE2 point drop-off in WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that examines high-value offensive volume) from last season to this one, Kyle Pitts has been incorporated much less in his offense's passing offense.
Kyle Pitts's 2.76 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year shows a meaningful diminishment in his efficiency in the open field over last year's 6.6% mark.