Kyle Pitts Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Kyle Pitts

NFL · Player Props

Kyle Pitts

TE · Atlanta Falcons

Receiving Yards

Atlanta Falcons vs Carolina Panthers · Week 1, 2023

Updated Sep 11, 2023 12:01 AM EST

Analysis

Kyle Pitts Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 39.5 (-104/-125).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 38.5 @ -113 before it was bet up to 39.5 @ -104.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 35.0 pass attempts per game against the Carolina Panthers defense since the start of last season: 8th-most in the NFL.
THE BLITZ projects Kyle Pitts to accumulate 6.3 targets in this contest, on average, placing him in the 97th percentile among TEs.
Kyle Pitts has put up a colossal 77.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 99th percentile among tight ends.
The Atlanta Falcons O-line profiles as the 4th-best in the NFL since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a strong effect on all pass attack metrics across the board.

Favors Under

The Falcons are a 3.5-point favorite in this game, which points towards a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Atlanta Falcons as the 3rd-least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 52.2% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 5th-least plays run among all games this week at 126.0 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Atlanta Falcons have called the 8th-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a measly 55.1 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Kyle Pitts to be a much smaller piece of his team's passing game this week (21.0% projected Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (26.3% in games he has played).

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