Kyle Pitts Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Kyle Pitts

NFL · Player Props

Kyle Pitts

TE · Atlanta Falcons

Receiving Yards

Atlanta Falcons vs Los Angeles Chargers · Week 9, 2022

Updated Nov 6, 2022 8:31 PM UTC

Analysis

Kyle Pitts Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 40.5 (-110/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Kyle Pitts to total 6.9 targets in this week's contest, on average, placing him in the 96th percentile among TEs.
Kyle Pitts has been much more involved in his team's passing offense this season (25.2% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (20.0%).
Kyle Pitts's skills in grinding out extra yardage have gotten better this season, totaling 7.38 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to a measly 3.59 rate last season.
The Los Angeles Chargers pass defense has shown bad efficiency versus tight ends this year, yielding 8.73 yards-per-target to the position: the 7th-most in football.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Atlanta Falcons as the 3rd-least pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 51.1% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Atlanta Falcons offense to be the 3rd-worst paced team in football (adjusted for context) at the present time, averaging 30.10 seconds per play.
Kyle Pitts has posted significantly fewer air yards this year (58.0 per game) than he did last year (70.0 per game).
Kyle Pitts has put up many fewer receiving yards per game (38.0) this year than he did last year (54.0).
Kyle Pitts's sure-handedness have diminished this season, with his Completion% shrinking from 62.0% to 58.0%.

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