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Kyle Pitts

Kyle Pitts Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 1

Atlanta Falcons vs New Orleans Saints

Kyle Pitts Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 58.5 (+100/-133).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 58.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 58.5 @ -133.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Falcons are a 5.5-point underdog in this week's contest, likely leading to a passing game script.

This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.

THE BLITZ projects Kyle Pitts to accrue 8.0 targets in this game, on average, putting him in the 99th percentile among TEs.

Kyle Pitts has compiled a whopping 70.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 97th percentile among tight ends.

Kyle Pitts's 49.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) puts him in the company of the best in football: 97th percentile for tight ends.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

THE BLITZ projects the Atlanta Falcons as the 6th-least pass-oriented team in football (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 59.2% pass rate.

The Atlanta Falcons have run the 2nd-least plays in football since the start of last season, averaging a lowly 58.5 plays per game.

The Atlanta Falcons offensive line grades out as the 3rd-worst in the league since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful effect on all pass game statistics across the board.

Kyle Pitts has been among the most hard-handed receivers in the league among TEs, completing just 62.1% of passes thrown his way since the start of last season, grading out in the 11th percentile.

Kyle Pitts has been among the bottom tight ends in football at generating extra yardage, averaging a measly 3.59 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) since the start of last season while grading out in the 22nd percentile.

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