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Kyle Pitts

Kyle Pitts Receiving TD
Player Prop Week 5

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Atlanta Falcons

Kyle Pitts Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+312/-567).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +318 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +312.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Falcons are a heavy 8.5-point underdog in this week's contest, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-most plays run among all games this week at 131.4 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

Opposing QBs have averaged 41.2 pass attempts per game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense this year: 3rd-most in football.

THE BLITZ projects Kyle Pitts to be much more involved in his offense's air attack near the goal line this week (20.6% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (7.7% in games he has played).

Kyle Pitts has accrued quite a few more air yards this season (80.0 per game) than he did last season (70.0 per game).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Atlanta Falcons have called the 5th-least plays in the league this year, totaling just 53.2 plays per game.

Kyle Pitts's sure-handedness have tailed off this year, with his Completion% decreasing from 62.0% to 43.8%.

Kyle Pitts grades out in the 1st percentile among TEs as it relates to catching TDs this year, averaging just 0.00 per game.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers safeties profile as the 3rd-best unit in football this year in pass coverage.

The Atlanta Falcons O-line has given their quarterback a mere 2.41 seconds before getting pressured (8th-worst in football since the start of last season), which has a negative impact on all passing offense statistics across the board.

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