Kyle Pitts Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Kyle Pitts

NFL · Player Props

Kyle Pitts

TE · Atlanta Falcons

Receiving TD

Seattle Seahawks vs Atlanta Falcons · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 25, 2022 7:30 PM UTC

Analysis

Kyle Pitts Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+235/-315).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The weatherman calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Opposing offenses have averaged 35.9 pass attempts per game against the Seattle Seahawks defense since the start of last season: 9th-most in the NFL.
Kyle Pitts has been a key part of his team's passing attack near the end zone, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 16.5% since the start of last season, which ranks him in the 87th percentile among tight ends.
Kyle Pitts has accumulated a whopping 69.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 97th percentile among TEs.
Kyle Pitts's 49.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) puts him in the company of the best in football: 96th percentile for TEs.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-least plays run on the slate this week at 118.8 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Atlanta Falcons have run the 2nd-least plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging a lowly 59.0 plays per game.
The Atlanta Falcons O-line profiles as the 3rd-worst in the league since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a harmful effect on all air attack statistics across the board.
Kyle Pitts's receiving reliability have worsened this year, with his Completion% shrinking from 62.0% to 37.5%.
Kyle Pitts ranks in the 25th percentile among TEs as it relates to catching TDs since the start of last season, averaging a lowly 0.05 per game.

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