Kyle Pitts Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Kyle Pitts

NFL · Player Props

Kyle Pitts

TE · Atlanta Falcons

Receiving TD

Atlanta Falcons vs Chicago Bears · Week 11, 2022

Updated Nov 20, 2022 5:26 PM UTC

Analysis

Kyle Pitts Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+265/-365).

Key Factors

Favors Over

This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Kyle Pitts to be a more integral piece of his team's pass attack near the end zone this week (23.1% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (17.9% in games he has played).
Kyle Pitts has put up significantly more air yards this year (82.0 per game) than he did last year (70.0 per game).
Kyle Pitts's 63.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly higher this season than it was last season at 49.9.
The Chicago Bears pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks 2.51 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 10th-slowest in the NFL since the start of last season.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Falcons to run the least plays on offense among all teams this week with 61.3 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Atlanta Falcons have run the 2nd-least plays in football this year, totaling a lowly 53.6 plays per game.
Opposing teams have averaged 28.5 pass attempts per game vs. the Chicago Bears defense this year: least in football.
Kyle Pitts's sure-handedness have worsened this season, with his Completion% falling off from 62.0% to 49.1%.
The Chicago Bears safeties profile as the 4th-best safety corps in the NFL this year in covering receivers.

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