Kyle Pitts Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Kyle Pitts

NFL · Player Props

Kyle Pitts

TE · Atlanta Falcons

Receiving TD

Carolina Panthers vs Atlanta Falcons · Week 10, 2022

Updated Nov 11, 2022 12:21 AM EST

Analysis

Kyle Pitts Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+222/-359).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +276 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +222.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Kyle Pitts has been an integral part of his team's pass game near the goal line, garnering a Red Zone Target Share of 19.2% this year, which ranks in the 89th percentile among tight ends.
Kyle Pitts has put up a colossal 76.0 air yards per game this year: 98th percentile among TEs.
Kyle Pitts's 62.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably better this season than it was last season at 49.9.
The Atlanta Falcons offensive line profiles as the 9th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a strong effect on all passing offense metrics across the board.
Kyle Pitts ranks in the 76th percentile among TEs when it comes to catching TDs this year, averaging a stellar 0.25 per game.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-least plays run out of all the games this week at 125.5 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Atlanta Falcons have called the 3rd-least plays in football this year, totaling a lowly 53.7 plays per game.
Kyle Pitts's ball-catching skills have diminished this year, with his Completion% falling off from 62.0% to 52.9%.
The Atlanta Falcons O-line has given their QB a measly 2.41 seconds before getting pressured (8th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a negative effect on all passing offense statistics across the board.
The Carolina Panthers defense has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a mere 2.31 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the quickest in the NFL since the start of last season.

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