Kyle Philips Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Kyle Philips

NFL · Player Props

Kyle Philips

WR · Tennessee Titans

Receiving Yards

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Tennessee Titans · Week 11, 2023

Updated Nov 20, 2023 12:16 AM UTC

Analysis

Kyle Philips Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 22.5 (-140/+105).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 23.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 22.5 @ +105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The predictive model expects the Titans offensive scheme to skew 2.5% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context) with offensive coordinator Tim Kelly now calling the plays.
The Titans are a 6.5-point underdog in this week's contest, likely creating a passing game script.
The Jacksonville Jaguars defense has been something of pass funnel this year, compelling opposing QBs to attempt the most passes in the league (41.6 per game) this year.
Kyle Philips checks in as one of the most efficient pass-catchers in football, averaging a stellar 9.82 adjusted yards-per-target this year while checking in at the 81st percentile among wideouts.

Favors Under

Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Titans to pass on 55.7% of their downs: the 8th-lowest frequency among all teams this week.
The projections expect the Titans to run the 6th-fewest total plays among all teams this week with 62.9 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Titans have run the 5th-fewest plays in the league this year, totaling just 54.9 plays per game.
The Tennessee O-line ranks as the 8th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a harmful impact on all passing attack metrics across the board.
With a poor 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) (1st percentile) this year, Kyle Philips ranks among the leading WRs in the game in the league in space.

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