Kyle Philips Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

NFL · Player Props

Kyle Philips

WR · Tennessee Titans

Receiving Yards

Indianapolis Colts vs Tennessee Titans · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 4:50 PM EST

Analysis

Kyle Philips Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 19.5 (-118/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 20.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 19.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Titans are a 4-point underdog this week, likely leading to a passing game script.
The Tennessee Titans have run the 8th-most plays in the league since the start of last season, totaling a whopping 60.2 plays per game.
The Indianapolis Colts safeties project as the 5th-worst collection of safeties in the league since the start of last season in covering receivers.
The Tennessee Titans have been faced with a stacked the box on 26.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-most in football. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Tennessee Titans have used play action on 30.3% of their passing plays since the start of last season (7th-most in football), causing the defense to bite on the run and resulting in much higher passing production.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Tennessee Titans to be the 8th-least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 55.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Titans to run the 3rd-least total plays on the slate this week with 63.1 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Kyle Philips to be a much smaller piece of his team's passing game this week (12.5% projected Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (19.6% in games he has played).
The Tennessee Titans offensive line ranks as the 3rd-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful impact on all pass attack metrics across the board.
The Indianapolis Colts defense has allowed the 5th-least receiving yards per game in football (just 134.0) to WRs since the start of last season.