Kyle Juszczyk Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 14

NFL · Player Props

Kyle Juszczyk

FB · San Francisco 49ers

Receptions

San Francisco 49ers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 14, 2022

Updated Dec 11, 2022 9:16 PM UTC

Analysis

Kyle Juszczyk Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+172/-241).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -184 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -241.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the 49ers to run the 3rd-most total plays among all teams this week with 67.8 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The San Francisco 49ers offensive line profiles as the 8th-best in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong impact on all pass attack metrics across the board.
Kyle Juszczyk's ball-catching skills have gotten a boost this season, with his Completion% jumping from 76.3% to 84.3%.
The San Francisco 49ers have faced a stacked the box on 18.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-most in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The San Francisco 49ers have used some form of misdirection on 68.6% of their play-calls since the start of last season (most in the league), which can keep the defense guessing and improve offensive efficiency.

Favors Under

The 49ers are a 3.5-point favorite in this game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers as the 4th-least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 51.7% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Kyle Juszczyk's 10.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably lower this season than it was last season at 15.9.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers safeties rank as the best collection of safeties in the league this year in regard to pass rush.
The San Francisco 49ers have gone no-huddle on a lowly 3.4% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (7th-least in the league). This slows down the pace, leading to less volume and stat production.