Kyle Juszczyk Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Kyle Juszczyk

NFL · Player Props

Kyle Juszczyk

FB · San Francisco 49ers

Receptions

San Francisco 49ers vs Los Angeles Chargers · Week 10, 2022

Updated Nov 14, 2022 1:21 AM UTC

Analysis

Kyle Juszczyk Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+171/-233).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -152 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -233.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Kyle Juszczyk has run a route on 43.6% of his team's passing plays this year, ranking in the 75th percentile among RBs.
The San Francisco 49ers O-line ranks as the 8th-best in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong effect on all passing game metrics across the board.
The Los Angeles Chargers pass defense has given up the highest Completion% in football (92.4%) to running backs this year (92.4%).
The San Francisco 49ers have gone up against a stacked the box on 18.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-most in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The San Francisco 49ers have utilized some form of misdirection on 68.6% of their plays since the start of last season (most in the NFL), which usually makes an offense more unpredictable and more effective.

Favors Under

The 49ers are a heavy 7.5-point favorite this week, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers to be the 8th-least pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 54.3% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 127.1 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The San Francisco 49ers have run the 8th-least plays in the NFL this year, averaging a mere 55.9 plays per game.
The Los Angeles Chargers linebackers grade out as the 7th-best unit in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.

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