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Kyle Juszczyk

Kyle Juszczyk Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 4

San Francisco 49ers vs New England Patriots

Kyle Juszczyk Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (-130/+100).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 11.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 10.5 @ +100.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Opposing teams have averaged 35.1 pass attempts per game versus the Patriots defense since the start of last season: 9th-most in the NFL.

As it relates to air yards, Kyle Juszczyk grades out in the lofty 97th percentile among RBs since the start of last season, averaging a superb 7.0 per game. (considering most of their targets come behind the line of scrimmage, that is far more noteworthy than it appears since most RBs wind up with negative air yards).

The Patriots pass defense has conceded the 5th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (86.8%) to RBs since the start of last season (86.8%).

When it comes to linebackers in covering pass-catchers, New England's LB corps has been dreadful since the start of last season, ranking as the 5th-worst in the NFL.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

With a 11.5-point advantage, the 49ers are a massive favorite this week, implying much more of a focus on rushing than their normal approach.

Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the 49ers to pass on 51.8% of their opportunities: the 3rd-lowest rate on the slate this week.

Given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the San Francisco 49ers are projected by the predictive model to call only 60.2 plays on offense in this contest: the fewest among all teams this week.

The 49ers have called the 4th-fewest plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a mere 55.0 plays per game.

When it comes to pass protection (and the ramifications it has on all passing attack stats), the offensive line of the 49ers grades out as the 5th-worst in football since the start of last season.

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