K.J. Osborn Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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K.J. Osborn

NFL · Player Props

K.J. Osborn

WR · Minnesota Vikings

Receptions

Minnesota Vikings vs San Francisco 49ers · Week 7, 2023

Updated Oct 24, 2023 12:06 AM UTC

Analysis

K.J. Osborn Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-140/+110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ -125 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ -140.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This game's spread indicates a passing game script for the Vikings, who are -6.5-point underdogs.
Accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Minnesota Vikings to pass on 69.0% of their plays: the highest rate among all teams this week.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 39.8 pass attempts per game versus the San Francisco 49ers defense this year: 6th-most in the NFL.
The predictive model expects K.J. Osborn to notch 7.4 targets in this contest, on balance, ranking him in the 80th percentile among wideouts.

Favors Under

The predictive model expects the Vikings to call the fewest plays on offense among all teams this week with 62.3 plays, accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics.
The Vikings have called the 2nd-fewest plays in the NFL this year, averaging a mere 55.3 plays per game.
K.J. Osborn's sure-handedness have tailed off this season, with his Adjusted Completion Rate decreasing from 69.8% to 58.6%.
The San Francisco 49ers linebackers project as the 2nd-best LB corps in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.

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