K.J. Osborn Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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K.J. Osborn

NFL · Player Props

K.J. Osborn

WR · Minnesota Vikings

Receptions

Minnesota Vikings vs New York Jets · Week 13, 2022

Updated Dec 5, 2022 4:01 AM UTC

Analysis

K.J. Osborn Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+130/-170).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -160 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -170.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Minnesota Vikings boast a new play-caller this year in head coach Kevin O'Connell, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 4.9% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings as the 7th-most pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 64.3% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-most plays run on the slate this week at 132.9 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
The Minnesota Vikings have gone up against a stacked the box on 20.3% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-most in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The Vikings are a 3-point favorite in this week's contest, indicating a rushing game script.
The Minnesota Vikings offensive line profiles as the 7th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative effect on all passing attack stats across the board.
K.J. Osborn's receiving reliability have tailed off this season, with his Completion% falling off from 67.0% to 61.6%.
The New York Jets pass defense has yielded the 4th-lowest Completion% in football (62.4%) to wideouts this year (62.4%).
The New York Jets cornerbacks rank as the best collection of CBs in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.

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