K.J. Osborn Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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NFL · Player Props

K.J. Osborn

WR · Minnesota Vikings

Receptions

Minnesota Vikings vs Dallas Cowboys · Week 11, 2022

Updated Nov 20, 2022 8:21 PM UTC

Analysis

K.J. Osborn Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+100/-130).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Minnesota Vikings boast a new play-caller this year in head coach Kevin O'Connell, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 4.7% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings to be the 2nd-most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 67.0% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the most plays run among all games this week at 140.5 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
The Minnesota Vikings have been faced with a stacked the box on 20.3% of their plays since the start of last season, 5th-most in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

K.J. Osborn has been a much bigger part of his team's offense this year, staying in the game for 75.9% of snaps compared to just 56.0% last year.
The Minnesota Vikings offensive line grades out as the 4th-worst in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a negative impact on all passing game stats across the board.
K.J. Osborn's possession skills have diminished this year, with his Completion% shrinking from 67.0% to 62.1%.
The Dallas Cowboys linebackers project as the 2nd-best LB corps in the NFL this year in covering receivers.
The Dallas Cowboys defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing QBs a mere 2.39 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 5th-best in football since the start of last season.