K.J. Osborn Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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K.J. Osborn

NFL · Player Props

K.J. Osborn

WR · Minnesota Vikings

Receiving Yards

Atlanta Falcons vs Minnesota Vikings · Week 9, 2023

Updated Nov 5, 2023 8:26 PM EST

Analysis

K.J. Osborn Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 29.5 (-129/+100).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 32.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 29.5 @ +100.

Key Factors

Favors Over

At a -3.5-point disadvantage, the Vikings are underdogs this week, implying more of an emphasis on passing than their usual game plan.
The model projects the Vikings to be the 7th-most pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 62.9% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Vikings are forecasted by the projection model to call 65.5 offensive plays in this contest: the 6th-highest number among all teams this week.
The passing offenses of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may suffer.
K.J. Osborn has been used less as a potential target this season (92.9% Route Participation% in games he has played) than he did last season (81.2%).

Favors Under

K.J. Osborn's 65.3% Adjusted Catch Rate this year shows a noteable diminishment in his receiving talent over last year's 69.8% rate.
This year, the strong Falcons defense has given up a meager 132.0 adjusted receiving yards per game vs. opposing wide receivers: the 5th-fewest in the league.
This year, the tough Falcons defense has conceded a mere 62.5% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing wide receivers: the 8th-best rate in the league.
As it relates to safeties in defending pass-catchers, Atlanta's collection of safeties has been tremendous this year, profiling as the 9th-best in the NFL.

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