K.J. Osborn Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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K.J. Osborn

NFL · Player Props

K.J. Osborn

WR · Minnesota Vikings

Receiving Yards

Green Bay Packers vs Minnesota Vikings · Week 8, 2023

Updated Oct 29, 2023 7:26 PM UTC

Analysis

K.J. Osborn Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 41.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 44.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 41.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Our trusted projections expect the Minnesota Vikings to be the 5th-most pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 62.3% pass rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
Accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Vikings are predicted by the predictive model to run 66.3 plays on offense in this game: the 6th-highest number among all teams this week.
K.J. Osborn has been used less as a potential pass-catcher this year (93.3% Route Participation Rate in games he has played) than he did last year (81.2%).
When talking about protecting the passer (and the positive impact it has on all passing offense statistics), the O-line of the Minnesota Vikings profiles as the 3rd-best in football this year.
K.J. Osborn's 7.05 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year shows a significant boost in his effectiveness in picking up extra yardage over last year's 3.7% figure.

Favors Under

The Vikings have run the 9th-fewest plays in the NFL this year, averaging a mere 56.1 plays per game.
K.J. Osborn's 61.5% Adjusted Catch Rate this year represents a noteable diminishment in his receiving talent over last year's 69.8% figure.
The Packers defense has yielded the 8th-fewest adjusted receiving yards per game in football (just 138.0) versus WRs this year.
The Packers pass defense has been quite strong when opposing wide receivers have gotten into space, yielding an average of 3.79 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 7th-fewest in the league.
The Green Bay Packers cornerbacks grade out as the 4th-best group of CBs in football this year in covering pass-catchers.

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