K.J. Osborn Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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K.J. Osborn

NFL · Player Props

K.J. Osborn

WR · Minnesota Vikings

Receiving Yards

Las Vegas Raiders vs Minnesota Vikings · Week 14, 2023

Updated Dec 11, 2023 2:51 AM EST

Analysis

K.J. Osborn Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 16.5 (-105/-125).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 17.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 16.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Minnesota Vikings will be forced to use backup quarterback Joshua Dobbs in this game, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
The model projects the Vikings to be the 6th-most pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 60.7% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
The passing offenses of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (as in no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may fall-off.
The Minnesota Vikings O-line grades out as the 2nd-best in the league this year in pass protection, which has a positive impact on all pass attack statistics across the board.
K.J. Osborn's talent in grinding out extra yardage have been refined this season, totaling 5.94 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to just 3.65 rate last season.

Favors Under

The Vikings are a 3-point favorite in this week's contest, likely leading to a rushing game script.
The leading projections forecast the Vikings to run the 10th-fewest total plays among all teams this week with 64.3 plays, given their underlying propensities and game dynamics.
The leading projections forecast K.J. Osborn to be a less important option in his offense's air attack in this game (8.5% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (14.6% in games he has played).
K.J. Osborn's ball-catching skills have diminished this year, with his Adjusted Catch Rate shrinking from 69.8% to 66.7%.

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