K.J. Osborn Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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K.J. Osborn

NFL · Player Props

K.J. Osborn

WR · Minnesota Vikings

Receiving Yards

Washington Commanders vs Minnesota Vikings · Week 9, 2022

Updated Nov 7, 2022 12:21 AM EST

Analysis

K.J. Osborn Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 23.5 (-120/-120).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Minnesota Vikings boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Kevin O'Connell, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 5.0% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings to be the 6th-most pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 62.1% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 131.8 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Washington Commanders defense has yielded the 8th-most receiving yards per game in football (172.0) vs. wideouts this year.
The Washington Commanders pass defense has shown bad efficiency against WRs this year, conceding 9.58 yards-per-target to the position: the 3rd-most in the NFL.

Favors Under

The Vikings are a 3-point favorite in this week's game, which points towards a rushing game script.
Opposing QBs have averaged 32.1 pass attempts per game vs. the Washington Commanders defense this year: 6th-least in the league.
K.J. Osborn has posted quite a few less air yards this season (36.0 per game) than he did last season (47.0 per game).
The Minnesota Vikings O-line ranks as the 7th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful impact on all passing attack metrics across the board.
K.J. Osborn has notched substantially fewer receiving yards per game (27.0) this year than he did last year (37.0).

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