K.J. Osborn Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 2

NFL · Player Props

K.J. Osborn

WR · Minnesota Vikings

Receiving Yards

Philadelphia Eagles vs Minnesota Vikings · Week 2, 2022

Updated Sep 20, 2022 3:00 AM UTC

Analysis

K.J. Osborn Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 33.5 (-100/-132).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 33.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 33.5 @ -132.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Minnesota Vikings will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Kevin O'Connell, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 3.3% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
The Vikings are a 3-point underdog in this game, likely creating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings as the 2nd-most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 64.3% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The weatherman calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
The Minnesota Vikings have gone up against a stacked the box on 20.3% of their plays since the start of last season, 5th-most in the league. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the smallest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 126.1 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Minnesota Vikings have played in the 4th-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in football since the start of last season, which ought to result in reduced pass volume, increased running volume, and reduced passing offense results when facing windier conditions in this week's contest.
The Minnesota Vikings offensive line profiles as the 2nd-worst in the league since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a negative impact on all passing attack stats across the board.
K.J. Osborn has been among the bottom wideouts in the league at picking up extra yardage, averaging a measly 3.30 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) since the start of last season while ranking in the 25th percentile.
The Philadelphia Eagles defense has yielded the 2nd-least receiving yards per game in the league (just 122.0) to wideouts since the start of last season.