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K.J. Osborn

K.J. Osborn Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 16

Minnesota Vikings vs New York Giants

 
 
 
K.J. Osborn Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 34.5 (-105/-135).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 32.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 34.5 @ -105.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Minnesota Vikings will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Kevin O'Connell, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 5.6% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
  • THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings to be the 3rd-most pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 64.3% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 5th-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 133.7 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
  • The Minnesota Vikings have run the 8th-most plays in football this year, averaging a whopping 60.7 plays per game.
  • This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The Vikings are a 4.5-point favorite in this week's contest, likely leading to a rushing game script.
  • Opposing offenses have averaged 33.8 pass attempts per game against the New York Giants defense this year: 9th-least in the league.
  • K.J. Osborn has compiled far fewer air yards this season (42.0 per game) than he did last season (47.0 per game).
  • The Minnesota Vikings O-line grades out as the 5th-worst in the league this year in pass protection, which has a harmful effect on all passing game statistics across the board.
  • K.J. Osborn's receiving efficiency has declined this year, accumulating a measly 6.55 yards-per-target vs a 8.35 rate last year.

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