K.J. Osborn Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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K.J. Osborn

NFL · Player Props

K.J. Osborn

WR · Minnesota Vikings

Receiving Yards

Minnesota Vikings vs Indianapolis Colts · Week 15, 2022

Updated Dec 18, 2022 12:21 AM UTC

Analysis

K.J. Osborn Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 24.5 (-130/+100).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Minnesota Vikings boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Kevin O'Connell, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 5.0% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings to be the 4th-most pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 64.8% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-most plays run among all games this week at 136.3 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
The Indianapolis Colts pass defense has been vulnerable when opposing wide receivers have gotten into space, giving up an average of 5.01 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 5th-most in the NFL.

Favors Under

The Vikings are a 3.5-point favorite in this week's contest, indicating a rushing game script.
Opposing teams have averaged 31.2 pass attempts per game against the Indianapolis Colts defense this year: 3rd-least in the league.
K.J. Osborn has accrued significantly fewer air yards this season (34.0 per game) than he did last season (47.0 per game).
The Minnesota Vikings O-line ranks as the 4th-worst in football this year in pass protection, which has a harmful effect on all passing attack statistics across the board.
K.J. Osborn has accrued a lot fewer receiving yards per game (24.0) this season than he did last season (36.0).

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