K.J. Osborn Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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K.J. Osborn

NFL · Player Props

K.J. Osborn

WR · Minnesota Vikings

Receiving Yards

Detroit Lions vs Minnesota Vikings · Week 14, 2022

Updated Dec 12, 2022 3:56 AM EST

Analysis

K.J. Osborn Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 23.5 (-110/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Minnesota Vikings will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Kevin O'Connell, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 4.8% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings to be the 4th-most pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 65.5% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-most plays run on the slate this week at 134.1 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 38.5 pass attempts per game versus the Detroit Lions defense this year: 3rd-most in the league.

Favors Under

K.J. Osborn has compiled far fewer air yards this year (35.0 per game) than he did last year (47.0 per game).
The Minnesota Vikings offensive line profiles as the 8th-worst in football this year in pass protection, which has a negative effect on all passing attack stats across the board.
K.J. Osborn has posted quite a few less receiving yards per game (23.0) this season than he did last season (36.0).
K.J. Osborn's possession skills have worsened this year, with his Completion% decreasing from 67.0% to 61.9%.
K.J. Osborn's pass-catching efficiency has tailed off this year, totaling a measly 5.67 yards-per-target compared to a 8.35 mark last year.

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