K.J. Osborn Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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K.J. Osborn

NFL · Player Props

K.J. Osborn

WR · Minnesota Vikings

Receiving Yards

Minnesota Vikings vs New York Jets · Week 13, 2022

Updated Dec 5, 2022 12:46 AM EST

Analysis

K.J. Osborn Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 20.5 (-120/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Minnesota Vikings boast a new play-caller this year in head coach Kevin O'Connell, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 4.9% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings as the 7th-most pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 64.3% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-most plays run on the slate this week at 132.9 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
The Minnesota Vikings have gone up against a stacked the box on 20.3% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-most in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The Vikings are a 3-point favorite in this week's contest, indicating a rushing game script.
K.J. Osborn has accumulated quite a few less air yards this year (36.0 per game) than he did last year (47.0 per game).
The Minnesota Vikings offensive line profiles as the 7th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative effect on all passing attack stats across the board.
K.J. Osborn has notched substantially fewer receiving yards per game (23.0) this season than he did last season (36.0).
K.J. Osborn's receiving reliability have tailed off this season, with his Completion% falling off from 67.0% to 61.6%.

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