K.J. Osborn Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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K.J. Osborn

NFL · Player Props

K.J. Osborn

WR · Minnesota Vikings

Receiving Yards

Minnesota Vikings vs Dallas Cowboys · Week 11, 2022

Updated Nov 20, 2022 9:26 PM UTC

Analysis

K.J. Osborn Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 25.5 (-103/-125).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 28.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 25.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Minnesota Vikings boast a new play-caller this year in head coach Kevin O'Connell, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 4.7% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings to be the 2nd-most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 67.0% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the most plays run among all games this week at 140.5 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
The Dallas Cowboys pass defense has not been good when opposing wide receivers have gotten into space, yielding an average of 6.16 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 2nd-most in the NFL.

Favors Under

K.J. Osborn has been a much bigger part of his team's offense this year, staying in the game for 75.9% of snaps compared to just 56.0% last year.
K.J. Osborn has compiled far fewer air yards this year (40.0 per game) than he did last year (47.0 per game).
The Minnesota Vikings offensive line grades out as the 4th-worst in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a negative impact on all passing game stats across the board.
K.J. Osborn has posted significantly fewer receiving yards per game (26.0) this year than he did last year (37.0).
K.J. Osborn's possession skills have diminished this year, with his Completion% shrinking from 67.0% to 62.1%.

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