K.J. Osborn Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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NFL · Player Props

K.J. Osborn

WR · Minnesota Vikings

Receiving Yards

Buffalo Bills vs Minnesota Vikings · Week 10, 2022

Updated Nov 13, 2022 8:46 PM UTC

Analysis

K.J. Osborn Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 21.5 (+100/-140).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Minnesota Vikings boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Kevin O'Connell, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 5.1% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
The Vikings are a 6.5-point underdog in this week's contest, which points towards a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings to be the 3rd-most pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 65.4% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Vikings to run the 4th-most total plays among all teams this week with 68.1 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Minnesota Vikings have gone up against a stacked the box on 20.3% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-most in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The weatherman calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
Opposing teams have averaged 33.4 pass attempts per game vs. the Buffalo Bills defense this year: 7th-least in football.
K.J. Osborn has been a more integral piece of his team's offense this year, staying on the field for 66.7% of snaps compared to just 56.0% last year.
K.J. Osborn has accrued far fewer air yards this season (34.0 per game) than he did last season (47.0 per game).
The Minnesota Vikings offensive line grades out as the 5th-worst in the league this year in pass protection, which has a negative impact on all pass attack metrics across the board.