K.J. Osborn Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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K.J. Osborn

NFL · Player Props

K.J. Osborn

WR · Minnesota Vikings

Receiving TD

Washington Commanders vs Minnesota Vikings · Week 9, 2022

Updated Nov 7, 2022 12:21 AM UTC

Analysis

K.J. Osborn Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+357/-705).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -605 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -705.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 131.8 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Washington Commanders defense has yielded the 6th-most TDs through the air in football to wide receivers: 1.00 per game this year.
The Minnesota Vikings have faced a stacked the box on 20.3% of their plays since the start of last season, 5th-most in football. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The Vikings are a 3-point favorite in this week's game, which points towards a rushing game script.
Opposing QBs have averaged 32.1 pass attempts per game vs. the Washington Commanders defense this year: 6th-least in the league.
K.J. Osborn has posted quite a few less air yards this season (36.0 per game) than he did last season (47.0 per game).
The Minnesota Vikings O-line ranks as the 7th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful impact on all passing attack metrics across the board.
The Washington Commanders safeties rank as the 3rd-best unit in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.

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