K.J. Osborn Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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NFL · Player Props

K.J. Osborn

WR · Minnesota Vikings

Receiving TD

Miami Dolphins vs Minnesota Vikings · Week 6, 2022

Updated Oct 16, 2022 11:51 PM UTC

Analysis

K.J. Osborn Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+360/-580).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings offense to be the 10th-quickest paced team in the league (adjusted for context) at the present time, averaging 27.62 seconds per snap.
K.J. Osborn's sure-handedness have improved this year, with his Completion% increasing from 67.0% to 75.2%.
The Miami Dolphins safeties rank as the 2nd-worst collection of safeties in football this year in covering receivers.
The Minnesota Vikings have been faced with a stacked the box on 20.3% of their plays since the start of last season, 5th-most in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Miami Dolphins have stacked the box versus opponents on 21.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 5th-most in football. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The Vikings are a 3.5-point favorite in this week's game, indicating a rushing game script.
K.J. Osborn has accumulated quite a few less air yards this year (39.0 per game) than he did last year (47.0 per game).
The Miami Dolphins pass defense has given up the 6th-lowest Completion% in the league (62.7%) vs. wideouts this year (62.7%).
The Miami Dolphins defense has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a mere 2.36 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 3rd-best in the NFL since the start of last season.
The Minnesota Vikings have gone no-huddle on a mere 4.5% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (9th-least in football). This slows the pace, resulting in less volume and stat accumulation.