K.J. Osborn Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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K.J. Osborn

NFL · Player Props

K.J. Osborn

WR · Minnesota Vikings

Receiving TD

Minnesota Vikings vs Chicago Bears · Week 5, 2022

Updated Oct 9, 2022 11:15 PM UTC

Analysis

K.J. Osborn Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+398/-845).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +401 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +398.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings offense to be the 7th-quickest paced team in football (in a neutral context) right now, averaging 26.83 seconds per play.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
The Chicago Bears cornerbacks project as the 2nd-worst collection of CBs in the league this year in pass coverage.
The Chicago Bears pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks 2.51 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 10th-slowest in football since the start of last season.
The Minnesota Vikings have faced a stacked the box on 20.3% of their plays since the start of last season, 5th-most in football. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The Vikings are an enormous 7.5-point favorite in this week's contest, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
Opposing QBs have averaged 27.2 pass attempts per game versus the Chicago Bears defense this year: least in the NFL.
K.J. Osborn has accumulated far fewer air yards this season (42.0 per game) than he did last season (47.0 per game).
The Minnesota Vikings offensive line profiles as the 7th-worst in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful impact on all pass attack statistics across the board.
The Chicago Bears defense has allowed the least passing touchdowns in football to wideouts: 0.25 per game this year.

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