K.J. Osborn Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 3

NFL · Player Props

K.J. Osborn

WR · Minnesota Vikings

Receiving TD

Minnesota Vikings vs Detroit Lions · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 25, 2022 4:55 PM EST

Analysis

K.J. Osborn Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+253/-413).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +257 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +253.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
K.J. Osborn grades out in the 86th percentile among wide receivers when it comes to catching touchdowns since the start of last season, averaging a terrific 0.37 per game.
The Detroit Lions safeties rank as the 3rd-worst unit in the NFL since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.
The Detroit Lions pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks 2.53 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 6th-slowest in the league since the start of last season.
The Minnesota Vikings have been faced with a stacked the box on 20.3% of their plays since the start of last season, 5th-most in football. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The Vikings are a 6.5-point favorite in this week's game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings to be the 9th-most sluggish paced defense in football (in a neutral context) right now, causing opposing offenses to average 27.66 seconds per snap.
Opposing offenses have averaged 32.8 pass attempts per game vs. the Detroit Lions defense since the start of last season: 9th-least in football.
The Minnesota Vikings O-line grades out as the 3rd-worst in the league since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful effect on all passing offense stats across the board.
The Minnesota Vikings have gone no-huddle on a mere 4.5% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (9th-least in football). This slows down the pace, resulting in less volume and stat accumulation.