K.J. Osborn Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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K.J. Osborn

NFL · Player Props

K.J. Osborn

WR · Minnesota Vikings

Receiving TD

Minnesota Vikings vs New York Jets · Week 13, 2022

Updated Dec 5, 2022 12:46 AM UTC

Analysis

K.J. Osborn Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+430/-969).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -907 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -969.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-most plays run on the slate this week at 132.9 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
The Minnesota Vikings have gone up against a stacked the box on 20.3% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-most in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The New York Jets have stacked the box versus opponents on 22.0% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-most in the league. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The Vikings are a 3-point favorite in this week's contest, indicating a rushing game script.
K.J. Osborn has accumulated quite a few less air yards this year (36.0 per game) than he did last year (47.0 per game).
The Minnesota Vikings offensive line profiles as the 7th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative effect on all passing attack stats across the board.
K.J. Osborn's receiving reliability have tailed off this season, with his Completion% falling off from 67.0% to 61.6%.
The New York Jets pass defense has yielded the 4th-lowest Completion% in football (62.4%) to wideouts this year (62.4%).

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