K.J. Osborn Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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K.J. Osborn

NFL · Player Props

K.J. Osborn

WR · Minnesota Vikings

Receiving TD

Minnesota Vikings vs New England Patriots · Week 12, 2022

Updated Nov 25, 2022 12:21 AM EST

Analysis

K.J. Osborn Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+432/-980).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -838 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -980.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 5th-most plays run on the slate this week at 132.4 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Opposing QBs have averaged 35.1 pass attempts per game versus the New England Patriots defense this year: 9th-most in football.
The New England Patriots defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks 2.52 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 8th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season.
The Minnesota Vikings have faced a stacked the box on 20.3% of their plays since the start of last season, 5th-most in the league. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

K.J. Osborn has put up significantly fewer air yards this season (39.0 per game) than he did last season (47.0 per game).
The Minnesota Vikings offensive line ranks as the 5th-worst in football this year in pass protection, which has a harmful impact on all passing attack stats across the board.
K.J. Osborn's receiving reliability have tailed off this year, with his Completion% shrinking from 67.0% to 62.1%.
The New England Patriots pass defense has given up the 5th-lowest Completion% in the NFL (61.9%) to wideouts this year (61.9%).
The New England Patriots defense has surrendered the least touchdowns through the air in football to wide receivers: 0.40 per game this year.

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