K.J. Osborn Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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K.J. Osborn

NFL · Player Props

K.J. Osborn

WR · Minnesota Vikings

Receiving TD

Minnesota Vikings vs Dallas Cowboys · Week 11, 2022

Updated Nov 20, 2022 9:26 PM EST

Analysis

K.J. Osborn Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+336/-636).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -567 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -636.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the most plays run among all games this week at 140.5 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
The Dallas Cowboys defense has conceded the 6th-most touchdowns through the air in football to wide receivers: 1.11 per game this year.
The Minnesota Vikings have been faced with a stacked the box on 20.3% of their plays since the start of last season, 5th-most in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

K.J. Osborn has compiled far fewer air yards this year (40.0 per game) than he did last year (47.0 per game).
The Minnesota Vikings offensive line grades out as the 4th-worst in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a negative impact on all passing game stats across the board.
K.J. Osborn's possession skills have diminished this year, with his Completion% shrinking from 67.0% to 62.1%.
The Dallas Cowboys linebackers project as the 2nd-best LB corps in the NFL this year in covering receivers.
The Dallas Cowboys defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing QBs a mere 2.39 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 5th-best in football since the start of last season.

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