K.J. Osborn Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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K.J. Osborn

NFL · Player Props

K.J. Osborn

WR · Minnesota Vikings

Receiving TD

Buffalo Bills vs Minnesota Vikings · Week 10, 2022

Updated Nov 13, 2022 8:26 PM UTC

Analysis

K.J. Osborn Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+436/-994).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -978 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -994.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Vikings are a 6.5-point underdog in this week's contest, which points towards a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Vikings to run the 4th-most total plays among all teams this week with 68.1 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Minnesota Vikings have gone up against a stacked the box on 20.3% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-most in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Buffalo Bills have stacked the box vs. opponents on 19.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-most in the league. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The weatherman calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
Opposing teams have averaged 33.4 pass attempts per game vs. the Buffalo Bills defense this year: 7th-least in football.
K.J. Osborn has accrued far fewer air yards this season (34.0 per game) than he did last season (47.0 per game).
The Minnesota Vikings offensive line grades out as the 5th-worst in the league this year in pass protection, which has a negative impact on all pass attack metrics across the board.
K.J. Osborn's receiving reliability have declined this year, with his Completion% shrinking from 67.0% to 63.5%.

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