K.J. Hamler Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 6

NFL · Player Props

K.J. Hamler

WR · Denver Broncos

Receptions

Los Angeles Chargers vs Denver Broncos · Week 6, 2022

Updated Oct 18, 2022 2:46 AM UTC

Analysis

K.J. Hamler Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-165/+125).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -150 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -165.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Denver Broncos will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Nathaniel Hackett, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 4.4% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
The Broncos are a 4-point underdog this week, indicating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the smallest volume of plays run among all games this week at 132.8 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Denver Broncos O-line profiles as the 7th-best in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a strong effect on all passing game statistics across the board.
The Los Angeles Chargers pass defense has yielded the highest Completion% in the NFL (69.8%) vs. WRs this year (69.8%).

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Denver Broncos to be the least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 61.2% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
K.J. Hamler has been been lightly used his team's passing offense, posting a Target Share of just 3.8% this year, which puts him in the 22nd percentile among WRs.
K.J. Hamler has been among the worst WRs in the game since the start of last season, averaging a lowly 1.1 receptions per game while grading out in the 19th percentile among wideouts.
The Los Angeles Chargers have stacked the box against opponents on just 13.8% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-least in the NFL. Choosing not to keep an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
The Denver Broncos have gone no-huddle on a lowly 3.8% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (least in football). This slows the pace, resulting in less volume and stat-padding.