K.J. Hamler Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 7

reorder

NFL · Player Props

K.J. Hamler

WR · Denver Broncos

Receiving Yards

Denver Broncos vs New York Jets · Week 7, 2022

Updated Oct 23, 2022 7:46 PM UTC

Analysis

K.J. Hamler Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 18.5 (-110/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Denver Broncos will be rolling with backup QB Brett Rypien in this week's contest, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
The Denver Broncos will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Nathaniel Hackett, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.2% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects the Denver Broncos to be the 6th-fastest paced defense in football (context-neutralized) right now, with opposing offenses averaging 27.56 seconds per snap.
The Denver Broncos O-line ranks as the 7th-best in the league this year in pass protection, which has a strong effect on all pass attack stats across the board.
The Denver Broncos O-line has given their quarterback 2.68 seconds before the pass (6th-best in football since the start of last season), which has a positive impact on all passing attack metrics across the board.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Denver Broncos to be the 5th-least pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 56.3% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Opposing teams have averaged 34.2 pass attempts per game against the New York Jets defense this year: 10th-least in football.
The New York Jets defense has allowed the 10th-least receiving yards per game in football (just 137.0) versus WRs this year.
The New York Jets cornerbacks rank as the 2nd-best collection of CBs in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.
The Denver Broncos have gone no-huddle on a measly 3.8% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (8th-least in football). This deadens the pace, resulting in less volume and stat-padding.