K.J. Hamler Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 6

NFL · Player Props

K.J. Hamler

WR · Denver Broncos

Receiving Yards

Los Angeles Chargers vs Denver Broncos · Week 6, 2022

Updated Oct 17, 2022 11:16 PM UTC

Analysis

K.J. Hamler Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 22.5 (-135/-105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 18.5 @ -145 before it was bet up to 22.5 @ -135.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Denver Broncos will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Nathaniel Hackett, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 4.4% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
The Broncos are a 4-point underdog this week, indicating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the smallest volume of plays run among all games this week at 132.8 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Denver Broncos O-line profiles as the 7th-best in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a strong effect on all passing game statistics across the board.
The Los Angeles Chargers pass defense has yielded the highest Completion% in the NFL (69.8%) vs. WRs this year (69.8%).

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Denver Broncos to be the least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 61.2% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
K.J. Hamler has been been lightly used his team's passing offense, posting a Target Share of just 3.8% this year, which puts him in the 22nd percentile among WRs.
The Los Angeles Chargers pass defense has been quite strong when opposing wideouts have gotten into space, allowing an average of 3.52 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 2nd-least in football.
The Los Angeles Chargers have stacked the box against opponents on just 13.8% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-least in the NFL. Choosing not to keep an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
The Denver Broncos have gone no-huddle on a lowly 3.8% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (least in football). This slows the pace, resulting in less volume and stat-padding.