K.J. Hamler Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

NFL · Player Props

K.J. Hamler

WR · Denver Broncos

Receiving Yards

Las Vegas Raiders vs Denver Broncos · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 11:15 PM UTC

Analysis

K.J. Hamler Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 15.5 (-103/-127).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 15.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 15.5 @ -127.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Denver Broncos will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Nathaniel Hackett, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.8% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects the Denver Broncos as the 10th-most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 61.7% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
The Las Vegas Raiders pass defense has surrendered the 8th-highest Completion% in the NFL (67.6%) versus wide receivers since the start of last season (67.6%).
The Las Vegas Raiders linebackers profile as the 7th-worst group of LBs in the NFL since the start of last season in pass coverage.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 125.7 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Denver Broncos have called the 10th-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging just 58.4 plays per game.
The Las Vegas Raiders defense has allowed the 2nd-least receiving yards per game in football (just 125.0) vs. wide receivers since the start of last season.
The Las Vegas Raiders pass defense has shown strong efficiency against wideouts since the start of last season, giving up 7.51 yards-per-target to the position: the 4th-least in the NFL.
The Denver Broncos have gone no-huddle on a mere 3.8% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (8th-least in football). This slows down the pace, resulting in less volume and stat-padding.